Book description
Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a
second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a
prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to
9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely
significant events. In The Signal and the Noise, the New
York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver
explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a
better crystal ball.
In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy
data, Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters, in fields ranging
from the stock market to the poker table, from earthquakes to
terrorism. What lies behind their success? And why do so many
predictions still fail? By analysing the rare prescient forecasts, and
applying a more quantitative lens to everyday life, Silver distils the
essential lessons of prediction.
We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than
ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In
this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver
reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives.
Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at
The New
York Times
who became a national sensation in the United States when his
predictions during the 2008 presidential election trumped most
mainstream polls. He is a contributor to
The New York Times Magazine
and has appeared as a commentator on CNN and MSNBC. He has spoken at TED
and SXSW, and was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the
world.
