Book description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above 0 a barrel, experts said it
would soon hit 0; a few months later it plunged to . In 1908, it was
pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how
that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as
dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the
future - everythng from the weather to the likelihood of a terrorist
attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this
phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the
future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and
why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book,
Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock
proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to
be right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on
current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and
behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The
future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.
Dan Gardner is the bestselling author of
Risk
as well as a columnist and senior writer for the
Ottawa Citizen
. Trained in history and law, Gardner worked in politics as a senior
policy adviser before turning to journalism. His writing has received
numerous awards, including the National Newspaper Award and Amnesty
International's Media Award. He lives in Ottawa with his wife and two
children.
