Book description
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above 0 a barrel, experts said it
would soon hit 0; a few months later it plunged to . In 1967, they said
the USSR would be the world's fastest-growing economy by 2000, the USSR
no longer existed. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no
more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts
are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask
them to predict the future-everything from the weather to the likelihood
of a terrorist attack.
Future Babble
is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains
yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who
predict it confidently, and why it's so easy for us to ignore the trail
of outrageously wrong forecasts.
In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book,
Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by professor Philip Tetlock
proved that the more famous a pundit is, the more likely they are to be
right about as often as a stopped watch. Gardner also draws on current
research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral
economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always
uncertain, but the end is not always near. Dan Gardner is the
bestselling author of Risk
as well as a columnist and senior writer for the Ottawa Citizen
. Trained in history and law, Gardner worked in politics as a senior
policy adviser before turning to journalism. His writing has received
numerous awards, including the National Newspaper Award and Amnesty
International's Media Award. He lives in Ottawa with his wife and two
children.
